Saturday 27 August 2011

A crisis of confidence in ruling class ideas?

Charles Moore, Daily Telegraph columnist, was on Newsnight last night. He's written that:

"I'm starting to think that the Left might actually be right".

The argument runs "What with the the phone-hacking scandal, the eurozone crisis and the US economic woes, the greedy few have left people disillusioned with our debased democracies."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8655106/Im-starting-to-think-that-the-Left-might-actually-be-right.html

Thatcher, he argues, was popular when she cut taxes and attacked the unions. We can challenge this: the cuts were not popular and Thatcher herself, "the Iron Lady", became extremely unpopular in the early years 1980s, her first years in office. What she was good at was in having a clear step-by-step plan to defeat her opponents, the Ridley Plan, sticking to it and understanding that the TUC could be relied on to wobble at the crucial moment. Eventually, people lost hope in an alternative and, helped by the Falklands War, her popularity revived and she won the 1983 election.

The comparison is nevertheless interesting. It reflects a growing crisis of confidence among our rulers. I would argue that this is not because he isn't as powerful a figure as Thatcher. That would be to overvalue her as a historical figure. Rather the circumstances are tougher for Cameron. The system went into crisis in the 1970s. Thatcher was one of the figures that lead the shift to neo-liberal, free market economics, breaking the post war consensus about commitment to full employment.

Coming up to forty years later, despite the continuing economic growth especially in Asia, the system is in much worse shape. Cameron has a tougher task than Thatcher. Nevertheless he can win if he follows Thatcher's example. He needs a plan. He has to stick to it. He has to rely on the TUC to wobble at the crucial moment. So far his plan has been to push ahead much harder and faster than Thatcher did. There have already been a few U-turns. As Moore points out the threat of another recession, the phone hacking scandal and the riots have shaken the confidence of our rulers.

But, if Cameron holds his nerve, he can win unless our side gets its act together. June 30 was a good day but it needs serious follow up. That's the key question for us. The march in Manchester on October 2 is a real opportunity to seize the initiative and put the Tories on the back foot.